Bitwise CIO Declares Four-Year Crypto Cycle Dead Citing 35% Institutional Adoption Surge

Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, has declared the end of the traditional four-year cryptocurrency market cycle, a framework historically used to predict price trends based on Bitcoin halvings, macroeconomic shifts, and speculative trading. Hougan’s statement, made during a recent Telegram discussion, emphasizes a structural transformation in the crypto market driven by institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and evolving investment dynamics [1]. He argues that factors previously driving cyclical peaks and troughs—such as Bitcoin’s halving events—have weakened, giving way to a new era of sustained growth rather than periodic volatility [2].

The CIO’s remarks align with broader shifts in the industry. Institutional participation has surged, with Bitwise reporting a 35% increase in institutional adoption metrics, attributed to improved market infrastructure and clearer legal frameworks [3]. This trend is reshaping the behavior of major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are now influenced more by institutional capital and long-term investment strategies than by speculative cycles. Hougan highlighted that “bigger players now dominate the crypto market,” suggesting that traditional supply-driven shocks, such as halvings, will play a diminishing role in price movements [4].

Regulatory clarity is another critical factor. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s recent approval and immediate suspension of Bitwise’s crypto ETF conversion underscores the complex but evolving regulatory landscape [5]. While such actions introduce uncertainty, Hougan views them as a sign of growing institutional confidence in crypto products. Analysts note that ETF approvals could stabilize markets by channeling capital into regulated vehicles, reducing reliance on volatile retail speculation [6]. This shift is already evident in Bitcoin’s recent price action, which has outperformed supply metrics ahead of the August lull, signaling resilience in a maturing market [7].

Looking ahead, Hougan envisions a market landscape where technological adoption and enterprise integration drive growth. Ethereum’s upcoming upgrades and demand shocks, for instance, could push its price to $6,404 by year-end, according to separate analyst projections [8]. However, he cautions that the next phase of crypto’s evolution will not be defined by repeating historical patterns but by “building new ones,” emphasizing innovation and institutional alignment over cyclical predictability [9].

The broader implications of this shift are significant. Sustained institutional interest, combined with regulatory progress such as the GENUIS Act and the Senate Banking Committee’s proposed “Responsible Financial Innovation Act,” could attract talent and capital to the sector [10]. Companies like Coinbase are already expanding hiring efforts, reflecting a growing perception of crypto as a legitimate asset class [11]. While challenges remain—including fragmented regulations and lingering skepticism—Hougan’s analysis suggests a foundation for prolonged growth is being laid.

Sources:

[1] [The Cryptobasic] (https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/25/bitwise-cio-declares-crypto-four%E2%80%91year-cycle-dead-predicts-steady-and-sustained-boom-from-2026/)

[2] [Cryptonews] (https://cryptonews.com/news/bitwise-cio-declares-four-year-crypto-cycle-is-dead-is-a-steady-record-breaking-boom-next/)

[3] [AInvest] (https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitwise-cio-declares-year-crypto-cycle-dead-institutional-adoption-drives-35-growth-2507/)

[4] [CoinMarketCap] (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68847e17f7cd2678bd5882f0/)

[5] [X] (https://x.com/crypto_townhall?lang=en)

[6] [Crowdfund Insider] (https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2025/07/246668-ethereum-demand-shock-could-significantly-impact-eth-price-movements-analysis/)

[7] [CoinStats] (https://coinstats.app/news/6a619d8e57e0db309132926efa7438076355d299ac68dcef45c998dca0f79204_Bitcoin-Demand-Outstrips-Supply-Ahead-of-August-Lull-Crypto-Daybook-Americas)

[8] [The Cryptobasic] (https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/07/26/heres-when-xrp-could-become-the-go%E2%80%91to-store-of-value/)

[9] [CoinMarketCap] (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68847e17f7cd2678bd5882f0/)

[10] [Cryptonews] (https://cryptonews.com/news/positive-crypto-sentiment-in-us-drives-hiring-demand-for-blockchain-jobs/)

[11] [CoinMarketCap] (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68847e17f7cd2678bd5882f0/)